Time flies, and in a twinkling of an eye, it has entered the second half of the year. In the first half of this year, China's photovoltaic industry has made remarkable achievements. Data released by the State Energy Administration show that from January to June, China added 24.3 million kilowatts of new photovoltaic installations.

Although the bright new data in the first half of the year show the good development trend of the industry, the reporter noticed that, unlike in previous years, the development of photovoltaic industry is facing new situation and new requirements.

Prices of domestic photovoltaic market will fall further

According to the relevant notification issued by the State Energy Administration, the construction scale of ordinary photovoltaic power plants in 2018 is not scheduled for the time being. Obviously, the photovoltaic development mode of high-spirited and fierce cooking oil has been unsustainable.

According to the relevant agencies, the scale of new installed machines this year is about 35 million kilowatts. However, apart from the newly installed capacity in the first half of this year, the domestic photovoltaic market in the second half of this year has only about 10 million kilowatts, including 5 million kilowatts photovoltaic application leading base project and photovoltaic poverty alleviation project.

Industry insiders told reporters that since new ordinary photovoltaic projects have no subsidies, in the second half of the year, it is estimated that in addition to the leader and poverty alleviation projects, there will be a small number of photovoltaic projects without state subsidies installed and connected to the grid, and the domestic photovoltaic market demand will be very limited.

On the other hand, in recent years, many leading photovoltaic enterprises have been expanding their production capacity because of the sustained growth of photovoltaic installed capacity in China. For example, Longji plans to expand its silicon wafer capacity to 28 gigawatts by the end of 2018; Tongwei will surpass Polysilicon Xiexin in the world after the completion of the two 100,000-ton polycrystalline silicon projects in Baotou and Leshan plus the existing 20,000-ton capacity.

Production capacity expands and output increases. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, from January to June, the output of polycrystalline silicon in China was 143,000 tons, which increased by more than 24% year-on-year; the output of silicon wafer was 50 gigawatts, which increased by 38.9% year-on-year; the output of components was 42 gigawatts, which increased by 23.5% year-on-year. With the large-scale increase of production capacity, the market demand is gradually decreasing. In the case of oversupply, the price of polycrystalline silicon products has dropped from 150 yuan/kg in January to about 90 yuan/kg at present. The industry expects that domestic photovoltaic market prices will fall further in the second half of the year.Photovoltaic Industry Comes to the "Turning Point" of Development

In 2017, China accounted for more than 50% of the global production scale in all sectors of the photovoltaic industry chain. Among them, module production accounted for 71% of global production, becoming the world's largest photovoltaic market.

Domestic photovoltaic companies have turned their attention to overseas markets in spite of the expected sharp drop in demand and price in domestic photovoltaic market. Except for China, the top three photovoltaic markets in the world are the United States, India and Japan. Among them, India has huge market potential and is expected to surpass the United States to become the second largest market in the world.

Data show that China exported more than 9 gigawatts of Indian components last year. From January to May this year, China exported about 3.6 gigawatts of photovoltaic components to India, accounting for 20.1% of total exports.

However, on July 30, the tax bureau of the Indian Ministry of Finance officially announced that it would impose a 25% guaranteed tariff on solar cells (whether packaged or not) in China, Malaysia and other developed countries from now on. So far, the export of domestic photovoltaic products to India is limited.

At the same time, the "double reverse" of photovoltaic industry in Europe and America is continuing, and the Japanese photovoltaic market has begun to shrink due to the decline of subsidies. These new situations also mean that after years of rapid development, China's photovoltaic industry has reached a real "turning point" of development.

Reducing cost and increasing efficiency is the way out for photovoltaic development in the second half of the year

The domestic photovoltaic market is unbalanced in supply and demand, and the overseas market is limited. What is the way out for China's photovoltaic industry in the second half of the year? "Cost reduction is the only way for the photovoltaic industry to expand the market, and technological innovation is the fundamental way to reduce costs." Industry experts said in an interview with reporters that the demand of photovoltaic market in the second half of the year has declined sharply, which will bring a big shuffle to the industry in a short time. Some small and medium-sized enterprises with insufficient investment, low technology level and weak strength may be eliminated by the market in this big shuffle. On the contrary, those enterprises with high technology level and strong strength can take this opportunity to get rid of the vicious competition in the market, speed up the pace of technological innovation, reduce the production cost of products, enhance the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation, and transform to the direction of high quality and high efficiency, so as to gain new life.

According to a recent study released by ICBC International, it is expected that higher conversion rate of single crystal silicon will be less affected in the second half of the year, as about 90% of the leading projects are now using single crystal silicon. In addition, the market share of monocrystalline silicon is expected to increase to 40% this year, as the conversion rate of monocrystalline silicon will be improved to make it easier to access the Internet at a fair price.

How to open up the disadvantageous situation of overseas market? The head of relevant departments of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products gave such an answer: "On the one hand, photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises should use WTO and other international dispute settlement mechanisms to break down trade barriers and safeguard their legitimate interests. On the other hand, we should also promote the diversification of export markets and product differentiation to enhance product competitiveness. With the help of the strategy of "one belt and one road" and the Asian investment bank platform, domestic PV enterprises can increase their export to Southeast Asian countries, and vigorously develop Latin American, Australian, East African and Western Asian markets. It is worth mentioning that in the first half of this year, China's photovoltaic exports to Australia, Mexico, Brazil and other emerging markets are growing rapidly. Among them, China's exports to Australia from January to May accounted for 13.3% of the total export volume.

Industry experts told reporters that in the face of the new situation and new requirements of development, whether domestic or external, photovoltaic enterprises are the most fundamental thing to do is to improve the quality and efficiency of their products, which can not only meet the domestic market demand for high-tech products, but also be accepted by the world. It can be predicted that the pace of cost reduction and efficiency increase of domestic photovoltaic industry will be further accelerated in the second half of the year.