In recent years, China's wind and photovoltaic power industry has developed rapidly, and began to enter a full-scale development stage. According to statistics, by the end of 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power in China reached 164 gigawatts and 130 gigawatts respectively, accounting for 9.2% and 7.3% of the total installed capacity. With the gradual expansion of the scale of development and utilization, China's wind power technology level and photovoltaic cell technology innovation ability have been significantly improved, and the cost of wind power generation has been effectively reduced. The prices of wind power equipment and photovoltaic modules have decreased by about 20% and 60% respectively in the past five years.
In order to achieve the goal of non-fossil energy accounting for 15% of primary energy consumption in 2020, speed up the establishment of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of renewable energy industry, in December 2016, the 13th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development published by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) proposed that wind power prices and local coal-fired power generation in 2020 should compete on the same platform. Voltage generation is comparable to the selling price of power grid. This will certainly be conducive to the development of renewable energy, but at the same time, this goal also faces many challenges. What are the conditions for renewable energy to access the Internet at a fair price in 2020? Where are the paths? What are the challenges? What policy mechanisms are needed to achieve them?
Supported by the National Social Science Foundation's major project "Clean Energy Price Competitiveness and Fiscal and Tax Price Policy Research", Professor Zhang Xingping and Professor Yuan Jiahai of North China Electric Power University have conducted in-depth competitiveness analysis and policy research around the issue of affordable access to the Internet.
On August 15, Professor Zhang Xingping and Professor Yuan Jiahai of North China Electric Power University published the latest research report "China's wind and solar power generation on the grid at a fair price: path and policy recommendations".
The cost model of wind-photovoltaic leveling power generation (LCOE) is constructed. Firstly, based on the actual situation of wind-photovoltaic power generation in 2016, the cost of wind-photovoltaic leveling power generation is estimated. The results show that there is a long way to go to the goal of parity power grid. Sensitivity analysis shows that power generation utilization hours, cost level and financing cost are three key factors affecting the leveling of power generation costs. On the basis of a large number of investigations and studies, taking into account the changes of these three key factors, three scenarios of "optimism", "neutrality" and "pessimism" are set up to explore the possibility and path of realizing the parity of wind and solar power generation in 2020, and to put forward policy suggestions for realizing the goal of parity of grid access.
The results show that:
(1) For wind power projects, under the "optimistic" scenario, about one-third of the provincial wind power level quasi-generation costs are lower than or close to the local coal-fired desulfurization benchmark price, which can achieve the goal of wind power generation side parity in the 13th Five-Year Plan. Under the "neutral" scenario, only three provinces'wind power projects can achieve parity in access to the Internet, but not the "three north" areas with the best wind resources, but the Guangdong, Zhejiang and Hunan provinces with high electricity prices and general wind resources. This also proves the necessity of shifting the focus of wind power development from the "three north" areas to the central and Eastern regions. In addition, in the "optimistic" situation, for those provinces that can not access the Internet at a fair price, the cost of wind power needs to be reduced by more than 20% on the basis of 2016 to achieve, and the cost level of wind power in individual areas needs to be reduced by 40% to achieve a fair access to the Internet. Therefore, it is a challenging goal for wind power to achieve parity on generation side in 2020.
(2) For centralized photovoltaic projects, in the "optimistic" situation, in 2020, the cost of centralized photovoltaic leveling power generation in about one fifth of the provinces in China is lower than or close to the local desulfurized coal benchmark price, which can realize the generation-side parity grid access. In other situations, the cost of centralized photovoltaic leveling power generation is significantly higher than the local desulfurization coal benchmark price, which can not realize the generation side of the grid. Under the optimistic scenario, the cost of centralized photovoltaic leveling power generation in all provinces in 2020, together with transmission and distribution price, government funds and additional, is higher than the price of 110kV large-scale industrial sales, and the competitiveness of direct participation in the power market is still insufficient.
(3) For distributed roof photovoltaic, the price of industrial and commercial electricity in each province is taken as a benchmark. Under the optimistic scenario, the cost of distributed photovoltaic power generation in 80% of the provinces in China is lower or close to the local industrial and commercial price, which can achieve the goal of user-side parity. Under the "neutral" and "pessimistic" scenarios, 60% and 30% of provinces have achieved parity on the user side.
Under the optimistic scenario, it is assumed that there is no abandonment of the market and the financing interest rate is at a low level (4%). Therefore, lowering the cost becomes the key factor to achieve a fair access to the Internet. It is estimated that the cost level of wind power projects should be reduced by more than 20% on the basis of 2016 in those provinces which still can not achieve the goal of parity in the "optimistic" situation, and by about 40% in individual areas; photovoltaic power projects should be reduced by about 40% on the basis of 2016, and the decline rate in individual areas should reach half.
The research results show that ensuring the utilization hours of power generation, reducing investment costs and green financial support are the important ways to improve the economy of wind and solar power generation and realize the parity of grid access. The policy system of guaranteeing the fair price of wind and solar power generation is as follows:
(1) Strategic positioning and innovation drive. The definite trend of global energy transformation is to realize the transformation from fossil energy system to low-carbon energy system, and finally to enter the era of renewable energy-based sustainable energy. Therefore, renewable energy technology will be the core of the future energy revolution. To clarify the strategic position of renewable energy technology innovation in the national technological innovation system and occupy the commanding heights of international technological competition in the new era is essential to promote the improvement and breakthrough of renewable energy technology.
(2) Adapt measures to local conditions and plan ahead. Although the cost of wind and solar power generation is relatively low in the "three north" areas with abundant wind and solar resources, the cost of coal power generation in these areas is very low because of the abundant coal resources. Wind and solar power generation and traditional coal power generation in these areas are not only in a weak cost competition, but also in-situ absorption capacity is limited, export capacity and market acceptance willingness are insufficient, and the problem of abandoning wind and discarding light is serious. In order to solve the problem of wind abandonment and light abandonment fundamentally, it is necessary to plan reasonably considering the differences between regional resources, electricity prices, power demand and transmission capacity of power grid.
(3) Quota constraints and support. At the initial stage of China's electricity market-oriented reform, renewable energy has developed rapidly and entered the stage of large-scale development. Considering China's national conditions and conditions, it is suggested to formulate scientific and reasonable quota standards, remove resistance and vigorously promote the landing of renewable energy quota system as soon as possible, and to implement the "multi-subject compulsory quota system".
(4) Introducing market and increasing efficiency. China's electricity market reform is under way. In the future electricity market bidding mechanism design, renewable energy can be considered to participate directly and indiscriminately in the market bidding, give full play to the competitive advantage of marginal low cost of renewable energy, make full use of market mechanism to explore the space for renewable energy absorption, and alleviate the contradiction between abandonment and abandonment. The gradual adjustment of the fixed electricity price system of renewable energy into premium subsidy mechanism and the separation of price and subsidy will not only benefit the consumption of renewable energy and enhance its competitiveness, but also speed up the decline of renewable energy subsidy.
(5) Overall arrangement and policy coordination. The combination of quota system, renewable energy certificate market trading system and carbon emissions trading system can organically coordinate government planning and market efficiency, achieve policy synergy, is a transformative mechanism to promote renewable energy development, and is conducive to reducing the cost of renewable energy generation.
(6) Standardize operation and reduce cost. Reducing the cost level is an important measure to realize the fair access of wind and photovoltaic power. Besides reducing the technical cost through technological innovation and market mechanism, strictly controlling the non-technical cost is an important source of reducing the cost of wind and photovoltaic power projects in the future. It is necessary to clarify the types of land use occupied by wind and photovoltaic power generation projects, and the corresponding land compensation and tax standards, and to standardize implementation and strengthen supervision; firmly implement the provisions that all external ancillary networking and transmission and distribution projects are invested and constructed by power grid companies. Standardized and reasonable charges by local governments and perfect grid-connected services by power grid companies are the basis for sustainable and healthy development of renewable energy industry.
(7) Green financing, financial escort. The report of the Nineteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that building a market-oriented green technology innovation system, developing green finance, strengthening energy-saving and environmental protection industries, clean production industries and clean energy industries are important contents for promoting green development and building a beautiful China. Aiming at the "financing difficulty" and "financing expensive" problems of renewable energy, we should build a green energy financial system to effectively reduce the financing threshold and financing cost of renewable energy projects.
